Monday, October 01, 2007

The Coming Iran War Pretext

Here it comes: the Iran War. And its going to be sold as "protecting the troops." And the politicians, media, and military brass will be unable or unwilling to stop it because nobody wants to be the one against "protecting the troops." And who wants to stick up for Iran? A bunch of Iran-lovers and troop-haters, that's who!

Obvious topics of debate that will be conveniently ignored until it is too late (at which point we will then hear the chorus of "nobody could have foreseen..."):
  • Is Iran actually doing what the Administration claims it is doing (whatever the accusation happens to be at the time)?

  • Can our military simultaneously manage yet another conflict while Iraq and Afghanistan continue to fester? (What if efforts to limit an Iran war to just airstrikes fails, and ground troops are needed in large numbers?)

  • What are the likely consequences of a new war with Iran? (And are we prepared for them?)

  • What are the unlikely consequences? (Are we prepared for those?)

  • Even if Iran is actually guilty of whatever accusation is eventually lodged against it, is punishing Iran worth the risk of both the likely and unlikely consequences of a war with Iran?
  • How would Iraqis (both in and out of government, but particularly the majority Shi'ite population) react?

  • How many more decades of war in the middle east and how many new grudges do we really want to buy?

  • Does anybody REALLY believe that things would be going great in Iraq if only its biggest neighbor, Iran, had a real reason to be pissed off at us?


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